Abstract:
This study analyzes the effects of education and unemployment on poverty in Southeast Sulawesi during 2010–2025. The study uses a quantitative approach with annual time series data obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). The variables used include the poverty rate, average years of schooling, and the open unemployment rate. The analytical method applied is the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine short-run and long-run relationships among variables. The results indicate the existence of a long-run relationship among education, unemployment, and poverty. Education has a significant negative effect on poverty in the long run, indicating that higher educational attainment contributes to poverty reduction. Meanwhile, unemployment has a positive but statistically insignificant effect on poverty. In the short run, lagged unemployment changes significantly affect poverty dynamics. Diagnostic and stability tests confirm that the ARDL-ECM model is statistically reliable and stable. These findings suggest that poverty reduction in Southeast Sulawesi should prioritize improving educational quality and human capital development, alongside more inclusive labor market policies.
References
BPS Provinsi Sulawesi Tenggara. (2025). KEADAAN KETENAGAKERJAAN PROVINSI SULAWESI TENGGARA 2024 (Vol. 15).
Dewangga, P., Saenong, Z., Ode, L., & Samrin, M. A. (2025a). ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND UNEMPLOYMENT AS DETERMINING FACTORS OF POVERTY IN SOUTHEAST SULAWESI PROVINCE. AT-TARIIZ: Journal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Islam, 4(04), 483–496. https://doi.org/10.62668/attariiz.v4i04.1877
Dewangga, P., Saenong, Z., Ode, L., & Samrin, M. A. (2025b). ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL INEQUALITY IN SOUTHEAST SULAWESI. Ecotechnopreneur, 4(02), 104–118. https://doi.org/10.62668/ecotechnopreneur.v4i02.1526
Fayza, S., Sinambela, R. A., Situmorang, R. M., Nafisha, N., Sari, P., & Silaban, M. J. (2025). THE EFFECT OF EDUCATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT ON POVERTY IN INDONESIA’S 34 PROVINCES (2018–2023): THE MEDIATING ROLE OF THE HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX. https://journal.unismuh.ac.id/index.php/jeb
Murjani, A. (2019). SHORT-RUN AND LONG-RUN IMPACT OF INFLATION, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH TOWARDS POVERTY IN INDONESIA: ARDL APPROACH. JDEP, 2(1), 15–29. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.14710/jgi.%25v.%25i.%25p
Ngubane, M. Z., Mndebele, S., & Kaseeram, I. (2023). ECONOMIC GROWTH, UNEMPLOYMENT AND POVERTY: LINEAR AND NON-LINEAR EVIDENCE FROM SOUTH AFRICA. Heliyon, 9(10). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e20267
Nkoro, E., & Uko, A. K. (2016). AUTOREGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTED LAG (ARDL) COINTEGRATION TECHNIQUE: APPLICATION AND INTERPRETATION. Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, 5(4), 63–91.
Peng, X., Bakti, H. B., & Bakar, A. S. A. (2024). THE IMPACT OF EDUCATION TYPE ON EMPLOYABILITY AND WAGES IN CHINA. Multidisciplinary Science Journal, 6(8). https://doi.org/10.31893/multiscience.2024133
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). BOUNDS TESTING APPROACHES TO THE ANALYSIS OF LEVEL RELATIONSHIPS. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
Qurniawan, R., & Jasmina, T. (2021). THE EFFECT OF GENERAL AND VOCATIONAL HIGH SCHOOL QUALITY ON LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES IN INDONESIA. The Journal of Indonesia Sustainable Development Planning, 2(3), 307–323. https://doi.org/10.46456/jisdep.v2i3.194
Rahim, A., Haryadi, W., & Muliawansyah, D. (2024). ANALISIS FAKTOR RATA-RATA LAMA SEKOLAH DAN PENGANGGURAN TERBUKA DALAM MEMPENGARUHI TINGKAT KEMISKINAN DI KABUPATEN SUMBAWA. Jurnal Ekonomi & Bisnis, 12, 14–25. http://e-journallppmunsa.ac.id/index.php/jebPp.14-25
Rahman, A., Nursini, N., Razak, A. R., & Anwar, A. I. (2021). EDUCATION OUTCOME IN EASTERN INDONESIA THROUGH EDUCATION EXPENDITURE. ICCD, 3(1), 321–331. https://doi.org/10.33068/iccd.vol3.iss1.370
Saci, F. (2023). PERFORMANCE COMPARISON OF POVERTY ALLEVIATION THROUGH EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT AND INDUSTRY DURING THE PERIOD OF TARGETED POVERTY ALLEVIATION. Journal of Economic Analysis. https://doi.org/10.58567/jea02030001
Samsuddin, M. A., & Fernando, E. (2025). ANALISIS PENGARUH TINGKAT KESEHATAN DAN TINGKAT PENDIDIKAN TERHADAP TINGKAT KEMISKINAN DI INDONESIA TAHUN 2017–2024. JUKONI: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi dan Bisnis, 02(02).
Spada, A., Fiore, M., & Galati, A. (2024). THE IMPACT OF EDUCATION AND CULTURE ON POVERTY REDUCTION: EVIDENCE FROM PANEL DATA OF EUROPEAN COUNTRIES. Social Indicators Research, 175(3), 927–940. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-023-03155-0
Yanti, N., Manajemen STIE Sumatera Barat, P., Jl Kolonel Anas Malik By Pass Kecamatan Padang Timur, P., Pariaman Nurtati, K., Akuntansi STIE Sumatera Barat, P., Pariaman Misharni, K., & Pariaman, K. (2020). INVESTASI MODAL MANUSIA BIDANG PENDIDIKAN: DAMPAK PENGANGGURAN DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 6(1).